Hodlers haven’t had to hodl aggressively enough, according to data from prior bear markets. More than half of Bitcoin (BTC) addresses are still profitable, raising doubts about the current “bear market.” As of June 20, 56.2% of addresses were still worth more in USD terms than when their coins were deposited into them using on-chain analytics firm Glassnode’s data.
Analysts are preparing for what they anticipate will be a retracement of up to 84.5% from all-time highs, as the BTC/USD pair dropped to 19-month lows of $17,600 over the weekend.
The lack of a clear sense of purpose this year is due to the fact that those highs weren’t “high enough” in comparison with previous bull market tops. The subsequent drop has caught many by surprise, despite not yet matching previous bear markets.
The Glassnode statistics back it up. When the BTC price bottoms, it has typically occurred when less than half of the addresses are still in profit, implying that the present decline still has a long way to go if it is to follow previous patterns.
In March 2020, successful addresses dropped to 41%, and before that, the 2018 bear market saw a decline below 50%.
However, panic may be setting in. According to Cointelegraph, realized losses have been growing among hodlers who are worried about babysitting their funds any longer.
On June 13, the largest on-chain realized losses in Bitcoin’s history occurred, totaling $4.76 billion in a single 24-hour period.
On the question of how much selling is required before the market reverses, Dylan LeClair, a senior analyst at UTXO Management, considered a difference between retail and derivatives traders.
In the past, he indicated this week, retail has traditionally sold first, with speculators coming in to complete the job by shorting Bitcoin at artificially low levels. “Getting closer,” part of a tweet was accompanied by a chart indicating that costs to shorters were rising as price action faded in recent days.
The prominent equities trader Jim LeClair upped the ante on Friday, stating that more liquidations are expected in the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry before a definitive bottom can be established.
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