In July, traders prepare for fireworks due to macro triggers, while BTC price action is on track to establish a new monthly low below the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $20,000 but is on track for a new bearish record as key support level remains out of reach. For CME futures markets, after a quiet weekend punctuated by a brief rise to nearly $22,000, BTC/USD is back near the closing price of June 24.
The current climate, with a familiar mix of macro dangers and persistent bearish tendencies, is far from ideal for the average hodler. Despite last week’s reprieve, crypto markets continue to shoulder the burden of cold feet, which have characterized macro sentiment increasingly throughout 2022.
As June approaches, Bitcoin is facing a few days of reckoning as it may possibly be the worst monthly performance since 2018. Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential market triggers for the week ahead as inflation rages and crypto fights to regain its footing. Traders anticipate July to bring forth “catalysts” for Bitcoin’s price. The phrase “apathetic” is an appropriate one to use when describing the overall sense of resignation among Bitcoin traders in this week’s edition.
While the weekend provided some breathing room for average investors, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC/USD is still a long way off where anyone wants it to be, even in a bear market. With the vital 200-week moving average (WMA) out of reach, there’s not much bullishness left.
The bottom is not yet in for Bitcoin, according to Venturefounder, who believes that any reprieve will be fleeting. His thesis reflects a widely held view that the bottom hasn’t come in yet for Bitcoin and that any relief efforts are essentially distractions on the road to lower prices that drain money away from market novices and weak hands.
Popular consensus for a genuine price bottom focuses on the region between $14,000 and $16,000, although $11,000 has emerged, corresponding to an 84.5 percent decline from Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Some investors are panicking and selling their BTC, but analysts are working to show that the scope of the Bitcoin bear market is typical so far. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode, for example, urged calm in a recent research article titled “A Bear of Historic Proportions.”
Investors’ reactions to price changes are what distinguishes the current climate, not Bitcoin itself. Despite staying within established norms, BTC sales at a loss have surpassed previous highs.
In Bitcoin terms, the losses amount to the third-largest in Bitcoin’s history.
Depending on one’s perspective, things are looking “troubling” or “interesting” for Bitcoin with three days until the June monthly close. With the bear market in full swing, BTC/USD has yet to breach a major trendline that has kept it at bay during previous macro downturns. The 200-week moving average (WMA), which has never been lower in value, presently sits at $22,430.
In the past, as Cointelegraph previously reported, when the Bitcoin price falls below the 200WMA, it has tended to hold there while wicking down to floor prices. This time, however, the level is turning resistance as bulls’ attempts to adhere to historical patterns repeatedly fail. As a result, Stock-to-Flow’s price model creator PlanB believes that the end of the month will be ” Interesting,” since it would set a monthly close under the 200WMA for the first time.
The Bitcoin price chart from June 26 shows how the 200WMA relates to Bitcoin’s distance from its block halving events, which define the four-year cycles, during which market paradigms have been previously discussed.
Meanwhile, Checkmate, a Glassnode on-chain analyst, noted further suspicious bearish qualities in the BTC price. In addition to being under the 200WMA, he points out that BTC/USD Is also below its realized price and deep in the “buy” zone of the Mayer Multiple indicator.
The Mayer Multiple, as Cointelegraph previously reported, shows how far the price is below its 200-day moving average and, thus, how likely a buy at a specific level would be to produce asymmetrical gains. “Such events in the past have only occurred for 13 out of 4,360 trading days – 0.2 percent of all trading days – according to Checkmate.”
However, Bitcoin’s dominance has been steadily declining in recent months, thanks to the effects of several major initiatives like Terra and Celsius. The tables have now turned, with Bitcoin dominance starting to rebound this year after spiking in 2017, leading some experts to believe that altcoins may be a good investment in the short term.
Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market cap has dropped to 43.46 percent, down from 48.36 percent on June 11, in just under three weeks as shown by its declining market dominance, according to CoinMarketCap.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt thinks that Bitcoin’s relative strength versus alternative cryptocurrencies may be more significant than meets the eye for bulls. “This chart might be a ‘tell,’” he said, regarding market capitalization dominance data. A close back above 50% would be very good, according to him.
Others are certain, however, that while the most recent reversal might suggest otherwise, it is not altcoins’ time to shine. According to Venturefounder, keeping BTC is still the greatest bet for an investor.
Bitcoin goes mainstream again, for the wrong reasons. Bitcoin is more popular among general internet users than it has been in over a year — but is it something worth rejoicing about?
According to Google Trends, more people are searching for “Bitcoin” in May than at any other time since May 2021.
Today’s BTC prices, like previous years, were targeting long-term lows rather than highs, implying that significant interest is generated by bearish events. When compared to last November’s all-time high, the recent spike appears to be a blip on the radar. As a result , terms such as “Bitcoin is dead” have grown in popularity among social media pundits.
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